Climate change is such a big issue that we are increasingly more aware of its effect on global weather and the increasing temperatures across the planet which can result in either extreme flooding or droughts depending on where in the world you are. However, according to the US Science Agency, NOAA, the world has now officially entered into an El Niño phase which will cause further extreme weather disruption and send global temperatures soaring over the next few years.
El Niño is a climate pattern which describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming is part of the larger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which sees the sea surface temperature increase more than 0.9° Fahrenheit (F). However, to be classed as El Niño this increase in temperature must last for at least 5 successive three-month seasons. The intensity of El Niño events ranges from weak with just a 4-5°F fluctuation, all the way to moderate with a temperature increase of 14-18°F. These severe fluctuations are associated with worldwide climatic changes which can result in droughts or extreme flooding.
On the opposite side of these fluctuations is La Niña, where the surface temperature is in an unusually cool phase. These ranges of El Niño and La Niña happen in irregular intervals, with El Niño occurring anywhere between every 2 to 7 years. The unpredictable nature of these fluctuations threatens to disrupt food security and cause widespread disruption when extreme weather as a result of these temperature fluctuations occurs.
Not every ENSO event is the same, and so consequences vary from region to region. In 1982-1983 the world experienced one of the most intense El Niño phenomena in the 20th century in which Australia experienced harsh droughts, whilst Tahiti experienced typhoons and Chile saw a record amount of rainfall. Then again in 1997 during another El Niño event, Indonesia saw extreme drought conditions, whilst Malaysia, the Philippines and Peru experienced heavy rain and severe flooding. The effects of the 1997 El Niño event were felt all the way in the United States where one part of the country experienced increased rainfall whilst the Midwest experienced record-breaking warm temperatures leading to the period to be known as ‘the year without a winter’.
So why does El Niño cause such severe weather? Well in normal conditions the surface water of the Pacific Ocean is cooler in the east and warmer in the west, and trade winds tend to blow east to west so heat from the sun progressively warms the waters. However, during El Niño these winds weaken or reverse which sends warm surface waters eastwards. With warmer water spreading further all whilst staying closer to the surface more heat is released into the atmosphere which creates warmer and wetter air which increases these extreme weather phenomena.
However, with the current return of El Niño in 2023 and as we enter into 2024, scientists are warning that El Niño conditions in combination with the current effects of global warming on extreme weather could make some already extreme weather events worse and see the world temperature records hit a new high over the next 5 years. If these extreme weather events continue to occur and are worsened by climate change, they may threaten infrastructure, food and energy systems on a global scale whilst also significantly reducing the production of marine food for key fishing industries.
Overall, ENSO is an unpredictable but potentially concerning natural phenomenon which could, along with the already warming temperatures of the world, due to climate change, lead to extreme weather phenomena over the coming months which may disrupt both local and international levels. However, due to the nature of El Niño and La Niña, we will never know the effects they will have until they occur over the coming years when we see how the temperatures continue to fluctuate.
Sources:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-64192508
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